A figure with nine zeros tells you nothing until you know what paper stands behind it. Look closely at this year's AI infrastructure headlines and many turn out to be letters of intent. Others are press reports nobody has confirmed, or ceilings on a liability that may never be paid. This page lists 33 deals from our coverage and gives the Instrument its own column, next to what's confirmed and what isn't. It's for people who plan against these announcements: a sysadmin sizing 2027 capacity, a developer deciding which GPU cloud to trust.
Last verified: 7 October 2026. We checked a primary document for 27 of the 33 rows. The other six rest on press and say so.
How to read this page
Rows run newest first. The date is the latest event that settled the instrument, so a deal signed in July and closed in August carries the August date, with the signing noted in the Instrument cell. The colored bar beside each date marks the kind of paper, keyed in the first table below. The Source cell lists primary documents first (a release, a filing). Links marked "Press" appear only where no primary document exists, or where the primary one doesn't carry the figure.
When a source disagreed with one of our own earlier articles, the source won. It happened more than once. Our pieces on Hugging Face and OpenRouter were written before the announcements that settled both deals, so the table doesn't link them. Both rows have moved on.
Status is one of four labels.
- Confirmed The instrument is visible in a primary document.
- Pending close A binding agreement exists, but the deal hasn't closed.
- Announced The parties said it, but it's non-binding, conditional or not yet delivered.
- Reported Only the press says so.
The ledger
Take the five biggest headline figures. One is a letter of intent ($500B-plus, Nvidia and SK). One is a set of MOUs with a capital target of the same size (Nvidia and six asset managers). One is another MOU ($200B-plus, Samsung and Broadcom) whose figure came from the press. One is a $105B cap on a guarantee that pays only if OpenAI defaults. Only the fifth, Anthropic's $100B-plus commitment to AWS, is a signed commitment in the ordinary sense, and we found no published contract text. We'd file the first four as direction, not money.
| Kind of paper | Instruments in it | Rows | Largest headline in the group |
|---|---|---|---|
| Binding paper | Signed contract, acquisition or definitive agreement, guarantee, warrant, regulatory filing, priced offering | 15 | $105B (Nvidia guaranties for OpenAI's Ohio leases, contingent) |
| Funding round | Equity rounds announced by the company | 3 | $1.505B (Fireworks) |
| Intent or plan | Letter of intent, MOU, announcement | 11 | $500B-plus (Nvidia and SK, letters of intent) |
| Press only | Reports with no company confirmation | 4 | About $45B (Anthropic and Nscale) |
| Date | Parties | Headline figure | Instrument | What is confirmed | What is not | Status | Source | Our write-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic, Akamai | $11.6B over 7 years, options to about $20B | Signed contract 8-K, plus a warrant to Anthropic | Firm $11.6B commitment for CPU workloads. Warrant on up to about 5% of Akamai at $111.33 a share; about 2% vests now. | The extra $9B is optional and needs agreed terms. No regions or instance types. Which Anthropic workloads run there is unsaid. | Confirmed | Akamai release 8-K exhibit 99.1 | CPUs, not GPUs | |
| Nvidia, Hugging Face | About $12.9B: $11.9B to holders plus up to $1.0B retention equity | Definitive agreement 8-K, signed 2 Sep | Price is payable to Hugging Face stockholders, subject to adjustments. Close expected in H1 2027. Nvidia pledges to keep the platform open to other silicon. | Regulatory approval. How the Hub stays neutral in practice. | Pending close | Nvidia 8-K, 2 Sep | None yet | |
| Anthropic, Nscale | About $45B over 6 years, 460 MW | Press report Bloomberg, CNBC | Nothing on the record. Nscale did announce the Monarch campus in West Virginia on 16 Mar 2026. | The contract, the $45B, the 460 MW and the late 2027 start. Anthropic declined to comment. | Reported | Press: Bloomberg Press: CNBC Nscale Monarch release (campus only) | 460 MW for late 2027 | |
| Nvidia, AI cloud partners (Sharon AI, Firmus) | $36B of Nvidia commitments to AI clouds | Regulatory filing 10-Q, filed 26 Aug | Payment ladder: $0 for the rest of fiscal 2027, then $6B, $8B, $7B, $6B and $9B through fiscal 2032 and later. Clouds can stop providing capacity and resell it. | The pause of some deals is the WSJ's report (27 Aug); the 10-Q is silent and Nvidia says its model stands. The 50% revenue share is WSJ's too. | Confirmed | Nvidia 10-Q Nvidia blog, 1 Jul Press: The Next Web | The pause and the filing | |
| AWS, Nvidia | 2 million more Nvidia GPUs, 2027 to 2028 | Announcement Nvidia release | AWS says it plans to deploy Blackwell Ultra, Rubin and Rubin Ultra GPUs. Also 100,000 GPUs planned for federal workloads, and NVHBM for next-generation Trainium. | No dollar value, contract or delivery schedule. NVHBM performance claims are unaudited. | Announced | Nvidia release | Trainium4 and NVHBM | |
| AWS, DuckLabs | Price undisclosed | Acquisition agreement DuckLabs becomes an AWS subsidiary | AWS agreed to buy DuckLabs on 26 Aug; the team joins as a subsidiary in early September. DuckDB, DuckLake and Quack stay MIT under the DuckDB Foundation. | The price. A closing notice: we found none. Who steers the roadmap after the deal. | Pending close | DuckDB post AWS Big Data Blog | DuckDB stays MIT | |
| IBM, HRL Laboratories (from Boeing and GM) | Price undisclosed | Definitive agreement, closed Signed 23 Jul, completed 26 Aug | IBM announced completion on 26 Aug. Boeing and GM keep working with IBM and HRL on quantum applications. | The price. Any product plan for HRL's silicon spin qubits (the published device has up to 18). | Confirmed | IBM completion release IBM announcement, 23 Jul HRL preprint, arXiv | 18 spin qubits and a fab | |
| Nvidia, Poolside | $6B licence plus $1B equity at $12B pre-money | Press report Poolside letter to investors | Nothing on the record from either company. The terms come from a Poolside letter to investors, first reported by Newcomer. | The $6B, the $1B stake and the 109 job offers. Any commitment to future Laguna weights. | Reported | Press: Newcomer Press: Bloomberg Press: The Next Web | Non-exclusive, 109 hires | |
| Stripe, OpenRouter | Price undisclosed; press says $7.5B to more than $8B | Acquisition agreement Stripe announcement, 19 Aug | Stripe announced on 19 Aug that it agreed to acquire OpenRouter. Financial terms were not disclosed. | The price: New York Times $7.5B, Axios more than $8B, Bloomberg more than $7B earlier. Closing date and conditions. | Pending close | Stripe announcement Press: The Next Web | None yet | |
| Unitree (Shanghai STAR Market) | About 6.1B yuan raised, valuation near 61B yuan | Priced IPO, listed Priced 6 Aug at 150.80 yuan, trading from 19 Aug | 40.45 million shares, about 10% of the enlarged capital, sold at 150.80 yuan a share. Trading began on 19 Aug. | Where it trades now: press reported an opening far above the issue price. We haven't read the prospectus; its figures reach us through press. | Confirmed | Press: The Next Web Press: Reuters via KFGO Press: Hangzhou city portal | 73.6% to labs | |
| Google, Marvell | Warrant on up to 58,970,907 shares at $206.58 ($12.18B to exercise in full) | Warrant 8-K; commercial agreement signed 29 Jul | Warrant issued 18 Aug, expires 18 Aug 2033. Only 1,360,867 shares vest on a calendar schedule. | The other 57,610,040 shares vest only as Google buys $500M tranches of custom silicon, $120B in all. Google's purchases are discretionary. | Confirmed | Marvell 8-K Press: Reuters via Yahoo Finance | The $120B hurdle | |
| Cerebras | 750 PFLOPS rack, no price | Announcement Product launch | CS-4 rack built from three WSE-3 Turbo wafers. Cerebras says first shipments begin this quarter. | Price and named CS-4 customers: none given. The 30x claim is against unnamed GPU hardware. | Announced | Cerebras announcement Cerebras press release | New rack, old die | |
| Nvidia, SB Energy, OpenAI | Guaranties capped at $105B; $1.5B equity in SB Energy | Guarantee Residual value guaranties, 8-K | Cumulative cap of $105B behind OpenAI's 20-year leases for about 4.25 IT-GW at PORTS-Pike, Ohio. OpenAI agreed to reimburse Nvidia. Leases start in phases from 2028. | Nvidia pays only if OpenAI defaults. Credit support for about 3.8 GW more is at Nvidia's sole discretion. The cap's share of OpenAI's total obligations isn't disclosed. | Confirmed | Nvidia 8-K, 17 Aug Nvidia release | A lease guarantee | |
| Groq, led by Disruptive | $350M Series A, reported $3.5B valuation | Funding round Groq newsroom | Groq's newsroom lists the $350M Series A, closed 17 Aug. Groq became an Nvidia Cloud Partner on 12 Aug. | The $3.5B valuation (TechCrunch, Bloomberg). Nvidia's participation was described as planned. | Confirmed | Groq newsroom Press: TechCrunch | Groq sells Nvidia capacity | |
| Quantinuum, Oracle | 98-qubit Helios in an OCI data center, no price | Announcement Joint release | Helios to be installed in a US Oracle Cloud AI data center. Oracle plans to preview its quantum service in the coming months. | Pricing, an availability date and any customer commitment: none disclosed. | Announced | Quantinuum release Oracle release | 98 qubits next door | |
| Nvidia; Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, KKR | Target of more than $500B of third-party capital | MOU Six memorandums of understanding | Six MOUs to build compute financing platforms. The release says they remain subject to execution of final agreements. | Capital committed, rates, terms and a first deal: none. The up-to-25% residual value support comes from Huang's remarks, not the release. | Announced | Nvidia release Press: Fortune | The 25% backstop | |
| Intel | $20B at $95 a share, about $19.7B net | Priced offering Upsized from a $15B proposal | 210,526,315 shares priced at $95; closing set for 12 Aug. Proceeds go to general corporate purposes, including capex. | No external 14A customer in the releases. Musk has said Terafab plans to use 14A; we found no published Intel wafer agreement. | Confirmed | Intel release, proposal Intel release, pricing (copy) | No named 14A customer | |
| Anthropic, Macquarie Asset Management, GIC | No figure published | Announcement Macquarie release | Theseus Infrastructure will develop and lease data centers to Anthropic on long-term agreements. Macquarie funds and GIC own it and fund most of the equity. US first. | Capital, megawatts, sites, dates and lease terms: none published. | Announced | Macquarie release Press: HPCwire | A deal with no numbers | |
| Situational Awareness, Source Foundry | $400M new, $500M in total, $5B valuation | Press report Bloomberg, WSJ | Nothing on the record. Bloomberg named the recipient on 8 Aug; the WSJ supplied the amounts. | The valuation, the product and any timeline. No wavelength or tool has been published. | Reported | Press: TechCrunch Press: Bloomberg | A bet against ASML | |
| AMD, Taalas | Price undisclosed | Definitive agreement Acquisition | AMD announced a definitive agreement on 6 Aug, subject to customary conditions and regulatory approvals. The technology goes into its accelerator roadmap. | The price and the closing date (Q4 2026 is press reporting). Any AMD product or benchmark. HC1 speed claims are Taalas' own. | Pending close | AMD release Press: The Register | A chip you can't reflash | |
| Tesla, SpaceX, State of Texas | $16.8B first phase, $30M state grant, 3,000 jobs | Announcement Texas Governor's release | The Governor's office published the first-phase figure, the jobs, a $30M Texas Enterprise Fund grant and JETI qualification. | Process node, production date, the $119B ceiling and the terawatt target. Intel said in April it joined Terafab; its scope is unpublished. | Announced | Texas Governor release Press: TechCrunch | What phase one buys | |
| Bitdeer, Volta (end customer reported: Anthropic) | $4.7B, 16-year lease for 121 IT MW | Signed contract Lease disclosed in a 6-K | Bitdeer's 6-K: lease at Tydal, Norway for 121 IT MW (133 gross); end customer "a leading AI lab"; delivery targets 31 Dec 2026 and 31 Mar 2027. | That the customer is Anthropic, and the roughly $10B six-year compute deal: both rest on Bloomberg and TechCrunch sourcing. | Confirmed | Bitdeer 6-K Press: TechCrunch | Compared in the Nscale piece | |
| Nvidia, Safe Superintelligence | "Substantial investment", no figure; Bloomberg says $5B | Announcement Nvidia release | Long-term partnership. SSI gets access to Vera Rubin and says its compute will grow tenfold in 12 months. | The dollar amount: the $5B is Bloomberg sourcing. SSI's current compute is undisclosed, so "10x" has no base. | Announced | Nvidia release Press: TechCrunch | $5B reported | |
| NAVER, Nvidia, Brookfield | $10B package: Nvidia $1B, Brookfield up to $9B | Announcement Conditional; Brookfield on a nonbinding term sheet | Nvidia's $1B is subject to customary closing conditions and to NAVER finalizing at least $9B of committed financing. GAK Sejong grows from 55 MW to 200 MW by 2028. | Brookfield's up to $9B is nonbinding. NAVER's financing isn't closed. | Announced | NAVER release | In the SK write-up | |
| Nvidia, SK Group | $500B-plus partnership, one 2 GW factory | Letter of intent Both companies' wording | Letters of intent signed. SK Telecom plans a 2 GW AI factory on Nvidia's DSX platform with Vera Rubin and SK hynix HBM4, first facility planned for 2027, plus a long-term memory partnership. | No breakdown, period or payer for the $500B. No site, power connection or HBM volumes. | Announced | Nvidia release SK hynix newsroom | Letters of intent, not a deal | |
| Samsung Electronics, Broadcom | More than $200B through 2030 (press figure) | MOU Announced at the San Francisco summit | Both companies announced an MOU covering HBM4 supply, 2 nm foundry work and advanced packaging. | The $200B figure comes from press, not the companies. An MOU is a statement of intent. | Announced | Press: CNBC Press: The Next Web | In the SK write-up | |
| Etched, led by Sequoia | $300M at a $10.3B valuation | Funding round Company release | Sequoia led, with a16z, Jane Street, Diffusion and SK hynix. Etched's site says production has started to fulfil over $1B in customer contracts. | The contracts are unnamed and absent from the release. No benchmark or price is published. | Confirmed | GlobeNewswire release etched.com | Where Sohu went | |
| PsiQuantum, DARPA | $125M expanded agreement | Signed contract Performance-based, QBI | Expanded agreement under DARPA's Quantum Benchmarking Initiative, after a $31.8M Stage C award in Sep 2025. PsiQuantum is one of two companies left in Stage C. | It funds verification, not a working machine: no qubit count or error rate. DARPA's 2033 outlook is a projection. | Confirmed | PsiQuantum release Press: The Quantum Insider | Verification, not a machine | |
| Fireworks AI, led by Atreides, Index and TCV | $1.505B Series D at a $17.5B valuation | Funding round Company post | Fireworks announced the round, led by Atreides Management, Index Ventures and TCV, with Nvidia taking part. | Revenue above $1B annualized, 40T tokens a day and the 95% specialized share are company claims, unaudited. | Confirmed | Fireworks post Press: SiliconANGLE | A raise ships no code | |
| Anthropic, Apollo, Blackstone, Google, Broadcom | $35B private credit package | Press report Bloomberg | Nothing we could open on the record. Bloomberg reports a vehicle buying Google TPUs and leasing them to Anthropic, with Google payment guarantees and Broadcom residual value guarantees. | The terms, the tenor and the guarantees themselves. | Reported | Press: Bloomberg | Compared in the Theseus piece | |
| Anthropic, Amazon | Up to 5 GW; more than $100B over 10 years to AWS | Signed contract Anthropic post | Anthropic says it signed a new agreement and commits over $100B across ten years to AWS technologies. Amazon invests $5B now, with up to $20B more later. | We found no published contract text. Nearly 1 GW by the end of 2026 is Anthropic's own target. | Confirmed | Anthropic post | Compared in the Nscale piece | |
| Nvidia, Groq | About $20B (press figure) | Signed contract Non-exclusive licence | Groq announced a non-exclusive inference technology licence. Jonathan Ross, Sunny Madra and others joined Nvidia; Groq stays independent. | The value: the release gives none, and the $20B is TechCrunch's number. | Confirmed | Groq release (reprint) Press: TechCrunch | Groq sells Nvidia capacity | |
| Anthropic, Fluidstack | $50B in US data centers | Announcement Anthropic post | Anthropic announced a $50B investment in US computing infrastructure with Fluidstack, Texas and New York first, sites coming online through 2026. | No contract terms or per-site figures. We haven't checked build progress. | Announced | Anthropic post | Compared in the Theseus piece |
The paper that does exist often runs smaller than the headline. Google's Marvell warrant covers $12.18B at full exercise, but 97.7% of the shares vest only if Google buys $120B of custom silicon, and the 8-K calls those purchases discretionary. Intel's $20B is the opposite case: priced and upsized, with closing set for 12 August. It still names no 14A wafer customer in either release. I might be wrong to read much into that, since Musk has said Terafab plans to use 14A and Intel says it joined Terafab. We found no published wafer agreement, though.
Four rows are press only. We'd bet the Nscale contract is real: Bloomberg and CNBC carried it the same day, and Anthropic declined to comment rather than deny it. A bet isn't a contract. Until a company, a filing or the counterparty says so, it stays Reported. The same goes for Poolside's $6B licence, which comes from a letter to investors.
What changed since
Each entry is a move that changed what a row can claim, newest first.
- 7 Oct 2026. First edition: 33 rows, 27 checked against a primary document. Our earlier Hugging Face and OpenRouter articles predate the announcements that settled those deals, so the table leaves them unlinked.
- 24 Sep 2026. Akamai files Anthropic's contract in an 8-K: $11.6B firm for CPU workloads, about $9B in options, plus a warrant. It goes straight to Confirmed.
- 2 Sep 2026. Nvidia's 8-K records a definitive agreement for Hugging Face: about $11.9B to shareholders plus up to $1.0B of retention equity, closing expected in the first half of 2027. The row moves from Reported to Pending close.
- 27 Aug 2026. The Wall Street Journal reports that Nvidia stepped back from some AI Compute Partnership deals. Nvidia says its model is still in place. The 10-Q filed the day before doesn't mention a pause.
- 26 Aug 2026. Bloomberg and CNBC report Anthropic's $45B Nscale contract; neither company confirms it. IBM completes its HRL purchase, AWS agrees to buy DuckLabs, and AWS and Nvidia announce 2 million more GPUs. Nvidia's 10-Q puts $36B of AI cloud commitments on the books.
- 19 Aug 2026. Stripe announces the OpenRouter deal without a price, and the press numbers split: $7.5B from the New York Times, more than $8B from Axios. Unitree starts trading in Shanghai.
- 18 Aug 2026. Marvell issues Google a warrant on up to 58,970,907 shares; the 8-K follows on 19 Aug. Cerebras launches the CS-4 with no price.
- 17 Aug 2026. Nvidia's 8-K discloses guaranties capped at $105B behind OpenAI's Ohio leases. Groq closes a $350M Series A.
- 10 Aug 2026. Nvidia signs MOUs with six asset managers for a $500B-plus capital target. Intel prices a $20B share sale. Anthropic, Macquarie and GIC announce Theseus without a single number.
- 24 Jul 2026. Nvidia and SK sign letters of intent for a $500B-plus partnership. Samsung and Broadcom sign an MOU the same day, and NAVER, Nvidia and Brookfield announce a conditional $10B package the day after.
Frequently asked questions
What's the difference between a letter of intent, an MOU and a definitive agreement?
A letter of intent and an MOU say two parties mean to do something, and they usually bind nobody to a price. A definitive agreement carries a price and closing conditions. That's why Nvidia's Hugging Face 8-K and the SK letters of intent sit in different groups here, even though both come with a very large number.
Is Nvidia putting $105B into OpenAI's Ohio data center?
No. The $105B is a cumulative cap on residual value guaranties. Nvidia pays only if OpenAI defaults on its 20-year leases, and OpenAI has agreed to reimburse whatever Nvidia pays. The cash that's actually moving is a $1.5B equity stake in SB Energy. The guaranties switch on lease by lease, starting in 2028.
How do you treat a deal that only the press has reported?
We keep it as Reported until a company statement, a filing or a counterparty document turns up. Two good outlets matching each other isn't confirmation, because they can share a source. Anthropic's $45B Nscale contract is the standing example.
Does any of this change what I can buy this year?
Mostly not. SK's first factory is planned for 2027, the Nscale site for late 2027, and the Ohio leases start in 2028. The near-term exceptions are small: Cerebras says first CS-4 shipments begin this quarter, with no price, and the Tydal site that Bitdeer leases to Volta has delivery targets on 31 December 2026 and 31 March 2027.
What's left off this page?
Software and consumer-product deals, such as SpaceX's purchase of Cursor and Google's data buy from Spirit Airlines. Nvidia's 13F is out too. It lists holdings, and guaranties and private stakes don't appear on it.
Sources
SEC filings we opened: Nvidia's 8-K of 17 August, 8-K of 2 September and 10-Q, the Marvell 8-K, the Akamai exhibit and Bitdeer's 6-K. Releases from Nvidia, Intel, AMD, IBM, Stripe, Macquarie, Quantinuum, Cerebras, Groq, Fireworks, Etched, PsiQuantum, Anthropic and the Texas Governor's office are linked in their rows.
Press links are labelled and used only where no primary document exists. Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal are cited as the original reports, which we couldn't always read in full. Where a publisher blocked our fetch, as Oracle's site and a Reuters syndication copy did, we fell back on the company's own copy or labelled the source as press.